{"id":4104,"date":"2024-10-28T09:15:40","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T14:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/?p=4104"},"modified":"2025-02-10T12:30:04","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T17:30:04","slug":"why-the-fed-doesnt-actually-change-your-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/why-the-fed-doesnt-actually-change-your-mortgage-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Fed doesn\u2019t actually change your mortgage rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Reading this title, you might be thinking, \u201cWhat? The Fed doesn\u2019t change my<a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/how-do-interest-rates-work-understanding-how-mortgage-companies-make-money\/\" title=\" rates?\"> rates?<\/a> Yeah, right!\u201d And that\u2019s totally fair\u2014it&#8217;s hard to ignore the constant buzz from the media about the connection between the Fed and <a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/mortgage\/rates\" title=\"mortgage rates.\">mortgage rates.<\/a> Whether the Fed is raising rates or cutting them, it seems like every news cycle ties the Fed\u2019s actions to the rates you pay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here\u2019s the real story: <strong>Yes, the Fed impacts rates, but not directly.<\/strong> In fact, <a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/will-mortgage-interest-rates-go-down\/\" title=\"mortgage rates often move\">mortgage rates often move<\/a> <em>before<\/em> the Fed even makes a decision. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The market already knows what the Fed\u2019s going to do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take September 2024, for example. The Fed made its first rate cut in 4 years. But here\u2019s the twist: mortgage rates actually held steady instead of dropping. Why? Because the mortgage industry had already anticipated that rate cut, and rates had already dropped in the weeks leading up to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomc.htm#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Open%20Market%20Committee%20(FOMC)%20consists%20of%20twelve%20members,terms%20on%20a%20rotating%20basis.\" title=\"Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)\">Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> meeting, where the decision was officially made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, even though the Fed announced the cut, the market had already priced it in. Mortgage rates had adjusted beforehand, and by the time the Fed acted, the news wasn\u2019t new\u2014it was already baked into the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, <strong>rates actually increased after the Fed cut<\/strong>, as the market began to react to other signals\u2014namely, that the Fed might slow down the pace of future cuts more than anticipated.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/mortgage\/rates?utm_source=tomo_blog\">See today&#8217;s rates<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why do mortgage rates and Fed rates move independently?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, why doesn\u2019t the Fed\u2019s rate directly affect mortgage rates? Let\u2019s break it down:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed controls the <strong>Federal Funds rate<\/strong>, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. But mortgage rates are set by lenders based on other factors, like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Term<\/strong>: The length of the loan <a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/15-year-or-30-year-mortgage\/\" title=\"(think 15 or 30 years).\">(think 15 or 30 years).<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/what-credit-score-do-i-need-to-buy-a-home\/\" title=\"Credit Risk\">Credit Risk<\/a><\/strong>: How likely it is that the borrower will repay the loan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Prepayment Risk<\/strong>: The uncertainty about when the loan will be paid off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>All of these factors are much more important to lenders than the Federal Funds rate. In fact, because lending for mortgages involves long-term loans with different risks, it doesn\u2019t behave the same way as overnight bank loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, while the Fed controls the short-term cost of borrowing (overnight lending), <strong>mortgage rates are influenced by long-term investment considerations<\/strong>, like the return investors expect from mortgage-backed securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">But wait\u2014what happens when the Fed cuts rates?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s a little twist to keep in mind: when the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates don\u2019t always go down. Sometimes, they actually <strong>go up<\/strong>. Why? Because the mortgage market may have already priced in the rate cut in anticipation, and if the Fed\u2019s move isn\u2019t as aggressive as expected, rates could rise instead of falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s all about market expectations. If the market thought the Fed would cut rates by more than it did, mortgage rates might bump up a little because the news signals a <strong>slower pace of easing<\/strong> than anticipated. The key takeaway: the market moves quickly and efficiently, pricing in expectations long before the Fed makes its official announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Don\u2019t let the Fed drive your mortgage decisions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed does have an impact on the broader economy and interest rates, but it\u2019s not a simple, direct relationship with your mortgage rate. The reality is that <strong>mortgage rates are driven more by market forces and investor expectations<\/strong> than by what the Fed does with its rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, the next time you hear about a Fed rate hike or cut, remember: don\u2019t buy into the urgency. If you\u2019re thinking about locking in your rate, <strong>focus on the bigger picture<\/strong>\u2014don\u2019t let Fed chatter dictate your decision. Mortgage rates are influenced by a variety of factors, and by the time the Fed makes its move, the market may have already made its adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if you\u2019re feeling uncertain, don\u2019t hesitate to talk to a lender who can help you navigate these complex dynamics. Give us a call at <a href=\"tel:7375102523\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">737-510-2523<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/mortgage\/affordability?utm_source=tomo_blog\">How much home can I afford?<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);margin-left:0;margin-right:0;\" class=\"has-link-color wp-elements-c54b177fd5d2f341f8967a20726f2ac0 wp-block-post-author has-text-color has-contrast-color has-background has-tertiary-background-color has-large-font-size\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-author__name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/author\/emanuel-santa-donato\/\" target=\"_self\">Emanuel Santa-Donato<\/a><\/p><p class=\"wp-block-post-author__bio\">As Senior Vice President and Chief Market Analyst, Emanuel leads Tomo&#8217;s Financial Products and Growth functions. He has an extensive background in macroeconomics and systemization (Bridgewater Associates) and a passion for creating solutions to the housing affordability problem. He has been working alongside the largest financial institutions in the country, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for the past 8 years, to modernize the mortgage industry.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>If you&#8217;re ready to start your journey to homeownership, <a href=\"https:\/\/tomo.com\/mortgage\/app\/preapproval?utm_source=tomo_blog\" title=\"\">get pre approved with Tomo Mortgage today.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reading this title, you might be thinking, \u201cWhat? The Fed doesn\u2019t change my rates? Yeah, right!\u201d And that\u2019s totally fair\u2014it&#8217;s hard to ignore the constant buzz from the media about the connection between the Fed and mortgage rates. Whether the Fed is raising rates or cutting them, it seems like every news cycle ties the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":4107,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[285],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-home-buying-tips"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/why-the-feds-rate-cuts-dont-really-impact-your-rate-tomo-mortgage-1-jpg.webp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4104"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4104\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4497,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4104\/revisions\/4497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4107"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tomo.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}