Tomo Mortgage Rate Monitor

Tomo Mortgage Rates

Rates Up for Third Straight Week to 7.125%

Updated: April 19, 2024

Tomo’s capital markets chief Emanuel Santa-Donato and CEO Greg Schwartz, break down the latest mortgage rate forecasts, predictions, and outlooks for 2024. Find out when we expect mortgage rates to go down and interest rates to drop. 

The Tomo Rate Monitor

Current Rate: 7.125%

Our predictions for 30yr fixed:

Q1 – 6.875% Est. / 6.875% Actual

Q2 – 6.625%

Q3 – 6.5%

Q4 – 6.5%

+.125% week-over-week

Rate News

Past week:

One or two macroeconomic data points showing a hotter than expected economy and mortgage rates rose as Retail Sales came in much higher than expected, adding another significant data point to the trend that the US Economy, Consumer, and Inflation remain strong. These are not disinflationary conditions. Nearly all Fed speakers this week have reiterated a “higher for longer” view until inflation begins to come down again.

What’s coming this week: 

GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, come out at the end this week.

What does this all mean for home buyers?

  • Rates have been increasing slightly week-over-week, but they are still below the beginning of the year high of 7.875%. This lower rate of 7.125% will save the typical home buyer $174 per month and $62,000 over the course of a 30 year loan term.
  • Another way to look at this: A typical buyer will be able to spend almost 5% more on a house, or roughly $18,000, and have the same monthly payment.

Calculations based on a $400k home price with 8% down, 740 credit.

ProductRate – Apr. 19Rate – Apr. 12 ChangeTidbits on Each Product
30 Year Fixed7.125%7.0%+.125%70% of loans are conventional loans, down payments range from 3% (with mortgage insurance) to 20% (without mortgage insurance)
30 Year Fixed – VA6.375%6.375%No changeVA loans are for service members, veterans and their families. As little as 0% down
30 Year Fixed – FHA6.5%6.375%+.125%Federal Housing Administration backed loan which have less stringent credit and down payment requirements
30 Year 7/6 ARM7.625%7.5%+.125%Fixed interest rate for first 7 years and rate can adjust each 6 months (up or down) by 2%
15 Year Fixed 6.5%6.375%+.125%Shorter term loans enable quicker payoff and interest expenses
Source: Tomo.com

Our Tomo Mortgage 30yr fixed conforming mortgage rate forecast for the end of year 2024 is 6.5%. We revised our Q2-Q4 estimates upwards due to the recent outperformance of key labor and inflation metrics. We are predicting a first Fed cut in September with three total cuts in 2024. The Fed can afford to be patient and wait for inflation to resume its decline before reducing rates as GDP and Job Growth numbers have consistently come in above forecast and the economy is still strong.

You can see personalized rates on our current mortgage rates page (we promise they are real rates for real people). You can also shop for homes with assumable mortgages as low as 3% in markets like Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Connecticut, and throughout the country, using our unique home search engine.

Economic Events Calendar

March Manufacturing PMI (Monday  – 9:45am) The Purchasing Manager Indices show expansion or contraction in the economy. Readings above 50 are an expansion, below 50 are a contraction. A reading below 50 will be beneficial for interest rates.

Jobless Claims (Thurs – 8:30 am) A strong labor market has been what has powering the US Economy and making inflation sticky. If this metric breaks out of its narrow range of 200k jobless claims/week, it would be significant for mortgage rates. 

Q1 GDP (Thurs – 8:30 am) GDP is the broadest measure of US Economic output and is a “Major Economic Release,” but it is so broad, and backwards-looking, that it has limited impacts on the near-term path of interest rates. Inflation and labor metrics are larger market movers.

March Personal Consumption Expenditures (Friday 8:30am) This has the highest chance of being a market mover for the week. When the Fed says they have a 2% inflation target, this is the metric they are using. For the past year this has been at 2.8%, and last month was 0.3%.  A reading at .2% or below would be favorable for mortgage markets.

Next: Calculate Personalized Rates

One response to “Tomo Mortgage Rate Monitor”

  1. Levetta P Carty Avatar
    Levetta P Carty

    Thanks Kyle,
    Always such great informative information.

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