Tomo Mortgage Rate Monitor

Tomo Mortgage Rates

Rates drop again to 6.625%

Updated: July 12, 2024

The market got what it was waiting for on Thursday, a low Consumer Price Index (CPI). Not only did the June CPI come in lower than expected, but it came in lower than the Fed’s 2% target on an annualized basis, with consumer prices increasing just .1% for the month. Bonds and mortgage rates immediately fell, as we now have several months of weakening inflation, consumer spending, and jobs. The years of restrictive Fed policy are finally showing in the economic data, and a steep drop in rates for the second half of the year is more likely.

What’s coming this week: It’s a quiet week after the major releases the week prior. Fed Chair Powell speaks Monday, but is unlikely to say anything significant. Core Retail Sales are on Tuesday, an indicator of consumer health.

Impact on Homebuyers

Homebuyers are seeing some savings in their monthly payments from the beginning of the year. This rate decrease to 6.625%, which is down overall from the 7.875% high at the beginning of the year, saves the typical home buyer $286 per month and over $103,000 over the course of a 30 year loan term.

Another way to look at this: A typical buyer will be able to spend almost 10% more on a house, or roughly $35,500, and have the same monthly payment. This assumes a home purchased at $400,000 with 8% down and 740 credit.

Rate Prediction

The Tomo Q2 prediction of 6.625% seems to have arrived two weeks late. The current data and trend is pointing to an economic slowdown and the market is forming a consensus of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in September.

Q1 20246.875%6.875%
Q2 20246.625%7.0%
Q3 20246.5%
Q4 20246.5%

Current Rates

You can see personalized rates on our current mortgage rates page (we promise they are real rates for real people).

ProductRate – July 8Rate – July 1 Change
30 Year Fixed6.625%6.875%-.25%
30 Year Fixed – VA6.125%6.25%-.125%
30 Year Fixed – FHA6.125%6.25%-.125%
30 Year 7/6 ARM7.5%7.5%no change
15 Year Fixed 5.875%6.0%-.125%

Economic Events

June Core Retail Sales (Tuesday – 8:30am) Consumer retail spending is a large part of GDP and a key segment of economic growth and activity. Increased spending shows a strong economy and could push inflation higher, decreased spending is indicative of a weakening economy in which retailers may need to reduce prices.

Next: Calculate Personalized Rates

One response to “Tomo Mortgage Rate Monitor”

  1. Levetta P Carty Avatar
    Levetta P Carty

    Thanks Kyle,
    Always such great informative information.

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